I've had five winning months in a row. Cheltenham and Aintree helped, but essentially I've been mining modest novice hurdles at tracks I've never even visited, nor previously watched on TV, let alone thrown money at. I've also tip-toed into the flat season, following the same theoretical edge, and early days suggest my methodology will work with 3 year old maidens. But not with 2 year old races. I thought it would be the other way around. My stakes aren't going to make me rich, but I'm so excited about being back in the game. I'm pretty sure I've a 10% edge that is lasting and plunderable.
But this week I'm wobbling. Badly. Okay, so let's rationalise. Be thankful to get damned near halfway through the year before that happened. Even so, worrying. Is it seasonal? Is it poor choice? Is it just the law of averages? A poor run? Regression to the mean? Fooled by randomness? I've no idea. Some or all.
Whatever, it's not a good way to be ahead of Epsom this weekend and Royal Ascot rumbling from afar like an unstoppable freight train. Stick or twist...? That, right there, is the gambler's curse.
But this week I'm wobbling. Badly. Okay, so let's rationalise. Be thankful to get damned near halfway through the year before that happened. Even so, worrying. Is it seasonal? Is it poor choice? Is it just the law of averages? A poor run? Regression to the mean? Fooled by randomness? I've no idea. Some or all.
Whatever, it's not a good way to be ahead of Epsom this weekend and Royal Ascot rumbling from afar like an unstoppable freight train. Stick or twist...? That, right there, is the gambler's curse.
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