I've had an interesting fortnight playing at the small tracks (and even managed to break even on The Hennessey last weekend). Definitely going to drift in that direction. In particular, I'm showing a good profit on legitimate favourites in uncompetitive novice races, usually from lesser stables. I see that and in-play football as the way forward edgewise (189% returns on half-time football bets so far this season - not that can't last!)
So, I really need to limit the bets on high days and Saturdays. I want to be engaged, and enjoy the thrill of betting in the big races, but don't want to be giving up my profits in the vain pursuit of glory. Today is a case in point. Good but impossible races all over. It's just too easy to get sucked in and sink without trace. So, scatter 40 points over three races and keep away from the keyboard thereafter.
Aintree 1:30
Love this race. I've got 19 in with a chance and the race often goes to an unfathomable one. Which is where I've headed. Knock a Hand needs to prove he stays and his jockey needs to prove he can stay on board. Ballybough Gorta only has a decent run in this last year to recommend him. Both need oodles of luck and a leap of faith. I'd rather play the race this way than any other.
Ballybough Gorta 3pts ew 40/1 (first 5)
Knock a Hand 3pts ew 25/1 (first 5)
Jeepers, gambling's frustrating sometimes. I short-listed three horses for my grand “throw darts at some outsiders” plan. The two I back run even worse than their prices suggested they would. The third wins. The reasoning in Oscar Time's favour was totally Sam Waley-Cohen who is poetry around these fences. The reasoning against was totally to do with my never backing 13 year olds.
Cross with myself, I immediately busted my discipline and went and chucked a chunk each way on Cedre Bleu in the Grand Sefton at 25/1. Which was good news considering Waley-Cohen again got a beautiful rhythm going and nursed the horse home for second. But, then I already knew Cedre Bleu was a dog, so why didn't I bet place only, or 20/80, or lay a wodge in running? This is increasingly par for the course these days. Still, the returns did rescue some of the nonsense below.
Sandown 1:50
Before I saw the prices I was leaning towards Irish Saint. Having seen the prices I should probably just move along. But given that I don't like Vibrato Valtat with a hill to climb, I feel inclined to side with the two drifting outsiders who are bang in there on ratings and seem too long.
Court Minstrel 7pts win at 9/2
Dunraven Storm 7pts win at 5/1
Sandown 3:00
Loads of horses lining up to have a crack at this class-depleted Victor Chandler. I can't get excited by any of them. By a process of elimination I was left with the eye-catching decision by connections to try to get a big one out of an obviously fragile William's Wishes. Hopefully ridden quietly to pick up some pieces.
Williams Wishes 6pts ew at 20/1
1pt ew double Ballbough Gorta and Williams Wishes.
So, I really need to limit the bets on high days and Saturdays. I want to be engaged, and enjoy the thrill of betting in the big races, but don't want to be giving up my profits in the vain pursuit of glory. Today is a case in point. Good but impossible races all over. It's just too easy to get sucked in and sink without trace. So, scatter 40 points over three races and keep away from the keyboard thereafter.
Aintree 1:30
Love this race. I've got 19 in with a chance and the race often goes to an unfathomable one. Which is where I've headed. Knock a Hand needs to prove he stays and his jockey needs to prove he can stay on board. Ballybough Gorta only has a decent run in this last year to recommend him. Both need oodles of luck and a leap of faith. I'd rather play the race this way than any other.
Ballybough Gorta 3pts ew 40/1 (first 5)
Knock a Hand 3pts ew 25/1 (first 5)
Jeepers, gambling's frustrating sometimes. I short-listed three horses for my grand “throw darts at some outsiders” plan. The two I back run even worse than their prices suggested they would. The third wins. The reasoning in Oscar Time's favour was totally Sam Waley-Cohen who is poetry around these fences. The reasoning against was totally to do with my never backing 13 year olds.
Cross with myself, I immediately busted my discipline and went and chucked a chunk each way on Cedre Bleu in the Grand Sefton at 25/1. Which was good news considering Waley-Cohen again got a beautiful rhythm going and nursed the horse home for second. But, then I already knew Cedre Bleu was a dog, so why didn't I bet place only, or 20/80, or lay a wodge in running? This is increasingly par for the course these days. Still, the returns did rescue some of the nonsense below.
Sandown 1:50
Before I saw the prices I was leaning towards Irish Saint. Having seen the prices I should probably just move along. But given that I don't like Vibrato Valtat with a hill to climb, I feel inclined to side with the two drifting outsiders who are bang in there on ratings and seem too long.
Court Minstrel 7pts win at 9/2
Dunraven Storm 7pts win at 5/1
Sandown 3:00
Loads of horses lining up to have a crack at this class-depleted Victor Chandler. I can't get excited by any of them. By a process of elimination I was left with the eye-catching decision by connections to try to get a big one out of an obviously fragile William's Wishes. Hopefully ridden quietly to pick up some pieces.
Williams Wishes 6pts ew at 20/1
1pt ew double Ballbough Gorta and Williams Wishes.
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