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Monday November 10

10/11/2014

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Monday, Carlisle, heavy. Three good reasons for not betting today. Chuck in a load of half fit horses and you have a recipe for disaster, which is roughly how I'm betting. 




Carlisle 1:50
Not hard to have doubts about the front of the market here - fitness and stamina doubts all over the place. I'll chance my arm on the less obvious (though the early birds seem to be joining me in the case of Sir Mangan).
Sir Mangan 9pts at 5/1
Back to Bracka 4pts at 7/1
Golden Sparkle 2pts at 16/1 (or longer betfair)

2nd and 3rd behind a horse heavily backed into favouritism. 





Carlisle 3:00
Neither Jonjo nor Sue Smith are banging in the winners. Which is probably why the very likeable Mickie is all the rage on her debut getting loads of weight. She's too short now though. How about a complete upset? 
Rival D'estruval 6pts win at 15/2
Alpha Victor 3pts win at 16/1

That 15/2 looked mighty silly when he drifted to 16s (and 25s on betfair). Even sillier when he jumped left all the way and faded tamely. Shutthefrontdoor very impressive. 


Monday, Carlisle, Heavy. Yep. 






Running Totals:
Out 278pts
In 374pts



    
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