Here we go again.
Blind patriotism providing value opportunities, as England set out to qualify for the World Cup.
1/3 to beat Montenegro is a silly price. Sure we could steamroller them, but we haven't the last three times they've met, and you couldn't possibly say Montenegro were lucky in any of those games. England maybe.
We haven't beaten anyone of note in this group - which has seen all the top teams drawing with each other.
The draw at 4/1 is massive. And if it's tight you can lay off. I'll even have a small tickle on Montenegro in case they score first.
And I've already backed Ukraine to win the group.
Of course I'll be happy as anyone else for us to wrap it up nice and early. But, as ever with England, it's one of those bets where I can't see a downside.
Notes every Saturday on that day's racing and how well or badly I've done the previous week.