Category: Gambling 2018

Cheltenham/Doncaster 27 January

27/1/2018

I’ve had a good week. I started off joining Olly Murphy on his attempt to go through the card at Fakenham, and this month’s go-to men, McCain and Hughes conjured up a nice day at Kelso. I really need to tip-toe through Cheltenham today and I’ll be able to pay myself a modest end of month dividend.

So, not much to recommend. I’ll keep Bryony, James Bowen and Harry Cobden onside – hey it’s Saturday – but that might be it for Cheltenham.

I’m more interested in Davy Russell’s trip over to Doncaster. Basically, if he has a good day, so will I.

Blimey – not a good day for Davy. So, could have been really bad news for me.

However, I managed to keep Rose Dobbin onside – she very nearly landed a double at Doncaster for me yesterday and banged in another one today. Also, Duke of Navan at 8/1.

I was going to mention Emma Lavelle in my write-up above but was too embarrassed to, thinking little of the chances of her horses on form. That’s the thing about handicapping trainers – sometimes you find yourself backing horses you never would do if you could hold the formbook the right way up. So, a nice win from Enniscoffey Oscar there.

Plus, Briony did us proud again, and James followed her home for the exacta. You’d think I’d had a good day after all that boasting. Actually, I ended up exactly where I started. Which I’m happy with.

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Saturday Gambler - Lanzarote

13/1/2018

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I was trying too hard early on in the week, but found my mojo yesterday, keeping it simple and was rewarded with some Henderson doubles. I’m keeping him onside again today at Kempton, but am more taken that Nico De Boinville has gone to Warwick.

I’ll have a good day if the Skeltons do well at Warwick or Dickie Johnson thrives at Wetherby.

In the Lanzarote I could back loads and might yet, but feel obliged to keep the two Nick Williams’ runners on-side. Lizzie’s on the first-string at 25/1. Interviewed yesterday, she said how she always chooses the wrong horse when daddy runs two, so I had a look, saw that Harry Cobden has been booked to ride the other one, and dashed to get the 50/1 before all the thieves jumped aboard. Good to see I can still move markets, given he’s now a general 66/1…

Reflections

A couple of months ago I said to a friend – Saturdays, for the rest of the season we need to keep James Bowen and Bryony Frost onside in the big handicaps. Simple. Or simpleton, given I backed neither yesterday. My friend did, obviously.

I’ve been backing Tom Lacey runners pretty much blind this season. On a busy Saturday, his one runner was lost to me in the rush to apply my other approaches. Until I heard his name called out as Vado Forte won the first at Warwick at 14/1. Bugger-bad start to the day.

In trying to keep the Henderson runners onside at Kempton, I got greedy and included Josses Hill in the accumulators, even though I gave him little to no chance, and had previously decided to focus on the runners in the other three races. That’s a 90/1 treble missed. I always struggle when a trainer has multiple entries in several races.

In better news, I had Dickie Johnson covered in doubles. Had he managed a fifth winner, that would have made all the difference but, even with the three mistakes above, it was an okay day and an okay week in the end. Not profitable, mind…

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Gambling 2018

6/1/2018

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I appear to be a full-time gambler again. Last year I was trying (at the very least half-heartedly) to land a proper full-time training job, or interim equivalent. To no avail. One excruciating interview aside. At the same time I tried (more whole-heartedly) to get my novel, and (to a lesser extent) my management book published. To no avail. One very encouraging rejection letter aside.

Whilst suffering this litany of failure I was playing small-time on the horses, twiddling about with a new methodology, and I did well enough for me to think I may be able to get back in the game.

And so, here I am. I have scraped together a bank, a modest one, but large enough I hope it will see me through to retirement and then beyond. My staking is going to be ludicrously conservative. I’ll be playing a maximum of 1% of the bank per meeting. My focus is going to be mainly on trainers, and especially focused on winners coming in clusters. My objective is for a very modest income, the equivalent of, say, me going and getting a minimum wage job at B&Q, not that they’d employ me in a million years. Assuming they have any sense.

I’ll do Saturday updates on here. Until I get bored anyway. Who knows, there may even be another book in it, unpublishable obviously.

To kick us off today I have done Wild West Wind at 10s and Ask the Weatherman at 15/1 to win the Welsh National and will have a good day if any of Gary Moore, Harry Cobden or James Bowen do.

That could have worked out worse. And, indeed better. A late ew play on Raz de Maree helped a lot, but thereafter James Bowen had three decent chances to really kick the fun forward with the running-on doubles. All floundered in the mud. One winner for Harry Cobden. One winner ain't what this game is about. And Gary Moore doesn't seem to have had a cluster of winners at Sandown for ages but who's going to stop me betting on that. It usually pays for my holidays.

My new methodology relies on me breaking even on daily plays (hopefully ahead, but I can live with level). The profit/bunce is in the clusterbombs. The staking is conservative enough to survive losing runs, but clever enough to take maximum advantage of the lucky days. That's the idea anyway.

So, one week in, how did we do? £50 up. Mustn't grumble. It's profit. Not mimimum wage, but still. Onwards...

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Cheltenham/Doncaster 27 January

Saturday Gambler - Lanzarote

Gambling 2018

Gambling

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