Blog Archives

Saturday December 27

27/12/2014

I'll keep digging:

Could be a big day for Alan King. I'll do a 1pt fourfold on Karezak, Balder Success, Uxizandre and Chatez just in case.

Welsh Grand National.
I used to go to this every year when I lived in Bristol back in the day. Can't ever remember picking the winner. So I hope connections forgive me when I sink the chances of One in A Milan for no obvious reason other than I backed him for the Grand National this year and got a bit excited at one stage. Don't say you lack for insightful analysis on this page.
One in a Milan 6pts each way at 16/1

Kempton 1:10
This is more my sort of race. God's Own experience looks the key here. Certainly if the race is anything like yesterday's Feltham (Kauto Star) Chase. Chuck in some bridle ponces and we're sitting pretty with 2/1. Admittedly, the last time I said this it was more a case of bridle pounces...
God's Own 12pts win at 2/1

0 Comments

Friday December 26

26/12/2014

0 Comments

Let's keep it nice and simple today.

King George
The Racing Post are all over Cue Card, despite his last two runs. I haven't got the horse right since his bumper, but didn't like the way he seemed to curl up last time when Silviniaco eye-balled him down the back straight. Menorah on the other hand has done nothing wrong this year. I think I backed him last year to win this at 33/1 or something, so why I'm back for more is anyone's guess. Still, at the prices, that's where I ended up for a festive play.
12pts Menorah at 8/1

Kempton 12:45
Arzal has the best rating so far and carries the lesser penalty. Small stable syndrome surely accounts for his price against all these paper hot-pots. Easy.
Arzal 10pts win at 4/1
Zip Top 2pts win at 13/2

And a 1pt win festive treble Arzal, Menorah and Rose of the Moon (Wetherby) at a shade under 500/1.

0 Comments

Saturday December 13

12/12/2014

1 Comment

Another (small) winning week covering small tracks and half-time football. At least until Cheltenham came along today and kicked all that into touch. My fat fingers couldn't even ensure me a profit from an in-running insurance lay of Some Plan - my main bet of the day. Take Cheltenham away and I'd be flying this season. Just so you see where I'm coming from!

Now, luckily I'm away tomorrow. So, instead of betting properly I can talk you through the card with the insouciance of someone who will be stuck at Tebay services with the mother-in-law when the carnage commences and up to his knees in Morecambe sand by the time it ends.

12:15
Stars over the Sea will have his hurdling found out, Hargam is (maybe) a dog, leaving Karezak to outfight them up the hill - probably get 4/1+ tomorrow.

1:25
The front two should probably take 50% of the market. Astracad possibly laid out for this again. Karinga Dancer surely Pricewise. He'll do at 13/2.

2:00
Aaah. Barry. Baz. The Bazster. He's our boy today. 100/1 treble for sure. I've already spent it on bed and dinner in Lancaster. With Ruby out the way, Barry doth bestride Saturday like a colossus. Well, that's the plan. Starting here at 9/1 on Ericht. Which you'll probably be able to do as a free bet on Bet365 with your Karinga Dancer winnings, so don't stint on the former at the expense of the latter.

2:35
OK, we're swinging along now. Probably time to celebrate with a cheeky post prandial. Warm up my cockles as the tide comes in and we wait for sea rescue. Yes, there's some likely lads here, if they stay, settle, don't go off too fast or too slowly, if there isn't rain or if there's a snowstorm. All which noise can't disguise the fact that Rebecca Curtis and AP McCoy make sweet money together. Bet365 will be issuing a profit warning once all us Binge Drinkers order a round at 11/2.

3:10
I'll probably be soaking in a bath of champagne by now or, failing that, some free toiletries, when Sir Geraghty forces an error out of The New One at the last and hangs on up the hill. After all, if Vaniteaux can't be competitive getting 8lbs he may as well aim for Newbury in February instead of glory.

3:45
Ok, now we're all hanging on for the 20000/1 accumulator. I may even have a peek at my phone to see how much I need to lay off to pay for the weekend. Just for insurance mind. I don't want to dilute the pot. Ah, Lord Barry of Cheltenham we salute you.

As a friend puts it, work how much you want to win and that decides your stake. I thank you.

1 Comment

Saturday December 6

6/12/2014

0 Comments

I've had an interesting fortnight playing at the small tracks (and even managed to break even on The Hennessey last weekend). Definitely going to drift in that direction. In particular, I'm showing a good profit on legitimate favourites in uncompetitive novice races, usually from lesser stables. I see that and in-play football as the way forward edgewise (189% returns on half-time football bets so far this season - not that can't last!)

So, I really need to limit the bets on high days and Saturdays. I want to be engaged, and enjoy the thrill of betting in the big races, but don't want to be giving up my profits in the vain pursuit of glory. Today is a case in point. Good but impossible races all over. It's just too easy to get sucked in and sink without trace. So, scatter 40 points over three races and keep away from the keyboard thereafter.

Aintree 1:30
Love this race. I've got 19 in with a chance and the race often goes to an unfathomable one. Which is where I've headed. Knock a Hand needs to prove he stays and his jockey needs to prove he can stay on board. Ballybough Gorta only has a decent run in this last year to recommend him. Both need oodles of luck and a leap of faith. I'd rather play the race this way than any other.
Ballybough Gorta 3pts ew 40/1 (first 5)
Knock a Hand 3pts ew 25/1 (first 5)

Jeepers, gambling's frustrating sometimes. I short-listed three horses for my grand “throw darts at some outsiders” plan. The two I back run even worse than their prices suggested they would. The third wins. The reasoning in Oscar Time's favour was totally Sam Waley-Cohen who is poetry around these fences. The reasoning against was totally to do with my never backing 13 year olds.

Cross with myself, I immediately busted my discipline and went and chucked a chunk each way on Cedre Bleu in the Grand Sefton at 25/1. Which was good news considering Waley-Cohen again got a beautiful rhythm going and nursed the horse home for second. But, then I already knew Cedre Bleu was a dog, so why didn't I bet place only, or 20/80, or lay a wodge in running? This is increasingly par for the course these days. Still, the returns did rescue some of the nonsense below.

Sandown 1:50
Before I saw the prices I was leaning towards Irish Saint. Having seen the prices I should probably just move along. But given that I don't like Vibrato Valtat with a hill to climb, I feel inclined to side with the two drifting outsiders who are bang in there on ratings and seem too long.
Court Minstrel 7pts win at 9/2
Dunraven Storm 7pts win at 5/1

Sandown 3:00
Loads of horses lining up to have a crack at this class-depleted Victor Chandler. I can't get excited by any of them. By a process of elimination I was left with the eye-catching decision by connections to try to get a big one out of an obviously fragile William's Wishes. Hopefully ridden quietly to pick up some pieces.
Williams Wishes 6pts ew at 20/1

1pt ew double Ballbough Gorta and Williams Wishes.

0 Comments

Saturday December 27

Friday December 26

Saturday December 13

Saturday December 6

Gambling

Archives

Categories