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Saturday racing

31/8/2013

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I had a terrible York, and I wasn't even around to play properly. Or perhaps that should read, I wasn't around to play properly and had a terrible York. Either way, those few days and Royal Ascot have cost me dear in what has otherwise been an encouraging year of tip-toeing back into flat racing.

Four races of interest on a humdrum Saturday. (A day to be out doing something else and just having a couple of swings).

2:55 Chester
Race for upsets so not sure why I have Enrol and Correspondent shorter than the market. Will have to play them. Probably keep Mabait onside. Pricewise tips up dear old Es Que Love - and the extra half furlong here should suit, but at best I could only envisage a saver.

Shocking runs from my main two, Mabait a little unlucky. Not sure why I had a point saver on Clockmaker very late on, certainly not based on my tissue. Inspired/lucky.


3:15 Sandown
Money for Falls of Lora this morning interesting. I was taken by Integral's run here, even if the form hasn't worked out. Zibelina also solid - though a worry that Corals are longest. Won't stray far from those. Watching brief for now.

Stuck with Integral in the end. And again taken with her. Ryan Moore rushed her up far too early - maybe to get her interested - and she did very well to get back up for a dead heat. Which didn't mean much by way of winnings sadly. Every chance she'll be a top filly next year. 


3:30 Chester
Looks very open. Star Lahib, Guarantee and Savanna La Mar all potential darts in a race I should avoid but probably won't.

Guarantee travelling really well when went wrong. Hope he's OK. Sun Central was the obvious one. Certainly shouldn't have been longer than Star Lahib. It was a race to avoid, and I didn't. 


3:50 Sandown
Not a race for the front of the market, though probably should keep the very genuine Sennockian Star onside. Chapter Seven and Beaufort Twelve look healthy outsiders. 

Crossed out Vasily (and Proud Chieftain) without much thought this morning. Ho hum. Over-staked with the doubles empty - cost me a few more quid than it should. Chapter Seven given an easy time - better with cut.  


Doubles
Correspondent  8/1
Zibelina 11/4
Guarantee 7/1
Chapter Seven 16/1


Out 42pts   In 22pts




  
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Saturday Racing

17/8/2013

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Just three races of interest today. A good day last Saturday but I played for no good reason yesterday and paid for it.

2:40 Newbury
At the prices I'll oppose Aiken off a break with Havlin up, though Gosden is in fine form. On my tissue there's juice in dutching Biographer and I'm Your Man - with an expectation of good ground or softer.  

Ho hum - it was a competitive race on paper and Aiken opposable. Biographer weak and ran a stinker. I'm Your Man not stay. OK.


3:15 Newbury
Soft Falling Rain may not be spot on for this, and Caspar Netscher far from sure to improve for the run last time. I'd have Gregorian and Tawhid much closer to them in the market and so will dutch both.

This was better. Actually it was like the good old days when the market regularly used to come into line with my tissue prices. Happy.


3:30 Ripon
Usual dart-throwing contest. Pearl Ice, Louis the Pious (again), El Viento and Rodrigo des Torres for starters.

Added Spinatrix to my portfolio which looked good until the favourite loomed up. 2nd and 3rd - that's life.


For the doubles, keep it simple - Murtagh at Newbury!

Backed Glen Moss (only 3pts) once the doubles were busted. And that helped the day out.
Horses:  Out 48pts  In 49pts


Football. Laid Liverpool at half-time only for Stoke to miss their penalty. Cross with that I then backed Wigan and Arsenal at half-time just in time for second half melt-downs. Ugly start to the season. Still, Fulham won...
Football:  Out 24pts   In 0pts



 
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To Every Football Season, Turn, Turn, Turn...

13/8/2013

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With the Great Premiership Kick-off soon upon us, time to wonder when football lost its soul. Gary Neville was very candid in the Guardian today.
“Nearly everything possible has been done to spoil this game. The heavy financial interests; the absurd transfer and player-selling system; the lack of any birth or residential qualifications for the players, the betting...the absurd publicity given to every feature of it by the press.”

Oh no, hang on. That wasn't written by Gary Neville. It was written by JB Priestley, in "English Journey", in 1933.
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Saturday Racing

10/8/2013

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Had a super day yesterday playing Brighton and Musselburgh. Not a sentence I've ever written before. And not overly keen to give it all back today and I always make sure I go out on Shergar Cup day.

Will do an each way double of Murtagh's two rides, oppose Ultrasonic somehow and throw some darts elsewhere.

Flipping hell, just watched the replays. The bookies dodged one there. Educate getting squished on the fence cost me the best part of 3k potential profit, and god knows how many people did a Murtagh double today.  Still, 12/1 David Livingstone not too shabby, nor the place double. Couldn't find any other double. Played the wrong horses opposing Ultrasonic. Strictly Silver one of the darts. A good day, that feels like it should have been better. 

For the doubles:
Educate 9/1
David Livingstone 12/1
Falls of Lora 10/1
Ningara 9/2
Highland Colori 9/1

Be lucky. 


40pts out.  85pts in.
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Saturday - Goodwood

3/8/2013

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I go into the last day treading water, just a few quid down, which isn't the worst position to be in when it comes to Goodwood. Not much on today. It would have been better if I had a full day, just put some bets on early doors and looked in afterwards. Will put my "do not dabble" head on. It's one of my least convincing faces.

Nassau
I feel inclined to take on Sky Lantern. It's very hard for a filly to take in so many Group 1 races in a row. Plus I think her price will be too short with a lot of people backing her, feeling they're owed one from the Falmouth. They're not. Integral will have to be some horse to step up here. Which leaves us with Just The Judge and Hot Snap at 7s. I'm much happier dutching those two at 3/1 than backing Sky Lantern at 2/1.    

Always annoying when you successfully take on the hot-pot but still lose. Market went in my favour. Hot Snap very well-backed, didn't travel at all until the last furlong.  

Stewards Cup
I have two ways into this race which have proven profitable over the years. Stick to horses that ran in the Wokingham and follow whatever Emily Weber tips.  So, with Ryan Moore on board and not forgetting I live there,  I should plainly be chucking it all on Shropshire!  Can't help feel he's stuck in the weights though, so will show at least a little prudence. On my prices I prefer Rex Imperator and Louis the Pious - who is worryingly weak on betfair. And at a huge price Macs Power is on a very good rating with William Buick booked. 

That's more like it! A nice 16/1 winner as the main bet, and a pocketful of losers dragging down the profit. My last race of the meeting and one that ensures a small profit - which I have to be happy with considering I didn't land a double all meeting (which is expensive!).


Out 45pts  In 67pts



 
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Goodwood Friday

2/8/2013

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Bad case of seconditis yesterday.

1:55 Goodwood
Can pick holes in the form of all the older horses. Sheikhzayedroad seems a big price considering that. Have taken 3pts at 8/1+, will top up later. Will keep Murtagh on-side as usual these days.

Keeping Murtagh onside paid dividends - Sheikhy all over the shop, looks tricky, give another jockey a go.


2:30 Goodwood
Big Montiridge fan, but hate the price. Hughes's choice seems to have allowed Baltic Knight to drift to a nice price. Will definitely back him. But not decided how to play yet - will hope doubles kick-off early to make it easier for me!
 
I may have hated 6/4 but it looks big now. I did save on him, when I had a good price on Baltic Knight, who never travelled. OK. 


3:05 Goodwood
The historic draw bias looks to be in the prices - though with the winners coming from the first 4 in the market over the past years, that seems par for the course. It's a worry because I'm keener on those with poorer draws - Galician and Haafaguinea in particular. Watching brief for now.

Played far too much in this. And ended up opposing horses I thought the likeliest winners for no good reason, and watched them come first and second. Not good. This race has very strong trends. 

3:40 Goodwood
Not sure why I continue to play Group sprints - I'm as clueless as everyone else. The two whose prices grab me this morning are Moviesta and Jwala. Expect I'll keep Duke of Firenze on-side as well. Watching brief.

Overplayed here as well to be honest, but Moviesta did the business anyway at a big early price.  

Doubles
Sheikhzeydroad  8/1
Baltic Knight 6/1
Galician 14/1
Moviesta 8/1

Out 57pts (too much)  In 65pts

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Goodwood - Thursday

1/8/2013

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A humdrum day for me, with only two races to look at. I'll probably dabble in some of the others but let's not dwell on my weaknesses. 

Actually, my betting advice today centres on dear old Fulham. Aren't they a decent bet for relegation at 8/1 with Victor Chandler? It remains to be seen how stable the club are now Al Fayed has cashed his chips, they finished last season awfully and are entirely dependent on the mercurial Berbatov. Marten Jol is third favourite in the sack-race and that seems indicative of the need for a quick start. 

There's no down-side for me in backing them. But, for the neutrals amongst you, Ladbrokes go 4/1 so someone agrees with me. Betfair settle in at 6/1.  


Back at Goodwood I'm with Pricewise in the Goodwood Cup on Altano, saving on Caucus and a bit on Ahzeemah.

In the Lillie Langtry I think I'll be opposing Wild Coco with Souviens Too and Elik, but not had a bet yet.

A get rich quick treble Altano, Souviens Too and Flaxen Flare at Galway.
  
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