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Cheltenham Trials Day

30/1/2016

It looks like I'll be kicking off the year with a losing month, which is disappointing. Bet365 have even started giving me free tenners again. And splashing through the mud at Cheltenham hardly looks the way to recoup losses. Still...

Betbright Chase
The roll call of winners of this shows what an attritional race it can be sometimes, and today that looks very likely. Djakadam looks a bonkers price to me. Surely he'll go off close to odds against. So, naturally we'll play against him. Many Clouds at 8/1, Smad Place at 7/1 and Wakanda each way at 22/1.

The Trophy Chase
Fully respect Champagne West but we can let him go unbacked at 2/1. Tenor Nivernais is a tough cookie, 6/1 looks fair. And Final Assault might plug on and pick up the pieces late at 11/1.

Cleeve Hurdle
Having backed Thistlecrack at Aintree I'm obviously a fan. But I'm also mighty keen on Camping Ground and this looks like his conditions today. 11/4 looks like bet of the day to me.

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Saturday 23 January - Peter Marsh Chase

22/1/2016

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I'm with playmates in Cardiff this weekend. Now I know that thousands are flocking to this page on the back of me naming the winners of the last two weekend's big chase winners and I couldn't bear to let any of you down, so here's a Friday summary for you, Jonah...

Let's cut to the Peter Marsh Chase
Virak - 5/1. That's it. What's not to like? Loves the course, goes on the ground, the rating he's run to the last twice is good enough to win this, and wee Harry Cobden's on board. OK, so he's topweight and not exactly value, but there's little depth here. Reve De Sivola is going to be popular, but I'm happy to let him go unbacked given his chase record. To complete the portfolio, how about an each way go on Gas Line Boy at 18/1.

Those looking for more - Harry Fry looks worth playing around with at Taunton and Dan Skelton at Haydock. Have fun.

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Saturday 16 January - Warwick Chase

16/1/2016

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Mountainous was in the Welsh National portfolio last week, so that kicked off a year of fun Saturday betting nicely. Let's apply a similar scattergun approach to the Classic Chase at Warwick.

The ones that look generously-priced to me, albeit only slightly, are:
Sego Success at 8/1 (course form a plus around here)
Vivaldi Collonge at 9/1 (Nicholls bouncing back to form)
What a Good Knight at 16/1 (ditto Dan Skelton)

and, if we are pleased about Mountainous last week, why not an each way bet on Kerry Lee's Russe Blanc at 20/1? That's my portfolio anyway. Could have easily chosen another six.

I spent some time scratching my head about Venetia's runners, and that led me to wonder why Aidan Coleman was at Wetherby instead, and that led me to play his mounts up there, centred on Gardefort.

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Saturday 9 Jan 2016

9/1/2016

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For 2016 I'll chuck some thoughts up here on Saturdays and high days, unless I get bored or distracted.
My main betting will remain focused on the smaller stuff, but on here let's have an old fashioned play at the big races. I'm not going to bother with staking or measuring or reviewing. This is for fun and glory.

The Welsh Grand National

This seems like the sort of day where there could be no finishers. Expect to see about three horses walk through the fourth last and swim from there. So I'd guess it would make sense to keep the two previous winners on side, especially given their trainers, 10/1ish seems fair.

That said, younger horses tend to win this and the one I keep looking at is Red Devil Lads, who I saw gallop relentlessly through the mud at Ffos Las one day last year. Rebecca Curtis looks to have her horses in better shape than they were and 16/1 each way first 5 is the main bet.

That done, you then notice Sean Bowen is riding her other runner, who either wins or pulls up, so I guess we'd best save on him, and do the exacta. Then of course you also have to save on the Harry Cobden mount, even being topweight, because that's what needs to be done in all big handicaps until the end of the season.

Then, if you want an interest through the day, Richard Johnson doubles at Kempton should do the trick.

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Review of 2015

3/1/2016

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New Year's resolutions. In January 2015 I thought I'd have a go at a new approach. I did the same the previous five years. It's the equivalent of dieting, or going dry, or to the gym or whatever. But I thought I had found a new edge and I thought I would give it a go. To modest stakes with a modest bank, by my old standards anyway.

My edge? That I won't divulge, I still partly blame my blogging for losing my old one, regardless of the probable facts. But it was to do with an epiphany I had whilst on a jolly to Stratford races where I thought to myself, these prices are wrong and the bookies don't seem to mind. It's to do with uncompetitive races, that's all I will say.

Anyway, come the end of April, I was tootling along just great, and had even managed a couple of terrific festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree, (of which more later) and I thought to myself “a profit in every month, that would be good, no?” And so, this became the challenge for the year. Mainly because I'm fairly sure I never managed that in any of the eight years I was a full-time gambler. What I had in my favour this time around was the races I was betting on and the prices of the horses I was favouring. In the past my main focus was entirely on the better class, highly competitive races. Now I was mainly focusing on small races at small tracks, with uncompetitive fields.

So, to the stats:

I bet on 1244 races over the year.
I was profitable in 487 of them.
885 were what I would call small races (378 profitable).
Outside of the festivals I had never really bet on novice hurdles before.
This year I bet on 466 novice hurdles (201 profitable).
By comparison I bet on only 350 flat races – even in the summer my first port of call was novice hurdles at places like Worcester. And, of the 350 flat races, over half of them were maidens at places like Wolverhampton and Chelmsford.

Overall numbers show returns of 120% (ie 20% profit on turnover).

Back in the day I always used to aim for 10% profit on turnover.
This became progressively harder the bigger the bank. It should be stressed that my turnover in 2015 was a fraction of what it used to be, so 20% is a false figure. I am doing this without the large betting bank I had then, and am flying at a level I hoped would keep me below the bookies' radar. That said, several of them closed me down anyway, or limited me or took Best Odds Guaranteed away (the latter a definite contributor to the 20%). I am left with just four viable accounts.

Novice hurdles returned 111%
Novice chases 120%
and that formed the bread and butter.

However, interestingly, competitive races returned 142%
and each way bets in competitive races 124%.
Graded chases 122%
Most days I did a daily treble or a set of trainer doubles and they returned 178% (Gary Moore at Sandown helped!)

I say interestingly, because something happened this year worth sharing. At my most successful I used to mainly lose, which takes some getting used to. My graph used to slope slightly downwards, but with huge spikes upwards as it settled at a new high and so on. This is the fate of someone playing at longer odds. But this time around the line on my graph sloped slightly upwards, with an occasional slump. Not only was each month in profit, but measured over the year, each day of the week was profitable (Thursdays best, for no reason I know of.) I did not have a meaningful or hurtful losing run.

An unintended but welcome consequence of this was that when the big days and festivals arrived I was not playing against the collar, was not in the rough, or under the cosh, desperate or scared. I was loose and calm and it freed me up in such a way that I think I saw things more simply and clearer than has often been the case. Either way, things went well with the big days, an unexpected bonus as I was really only betting on these for fun and out of habit and love.

I did have some losing areas – Hunter chasers which I ditched pretty quickly, and 2 year old races. I thought I would be able to approach these as I did novice hurdles, but that proved untrue. I did have some success with 3yo+ maidens on the flat, 105% returns, enough for me to persevere, but the jury is out.

All in all, totalling up all the hours I spent on form, betting and watching, I reckon I ended up with a salary for a part-time job of around £12 an hour tax-free. Which I guess is somewhere between living the dream or a waste of time, depending on where you're starting from and where you're headed. It beats my hourly rate for writing that's for sure.

Whether it's a career choice, I'll leave others to decide. For those who know the Wallace Stevens' poem I don't deserve the disillusionment of 10 O'clock, but I doubt I'm catching tigers either. Whatever, I am proud of this year, back from the dead and back in the game.

Whether it's replicable in 2016, well, we'll see...

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Cheltenham Trials Day

Saturday 23 January - Peter Marsh Chase

Saturday 16 January - Warwick Chase

Saturday 9 Jan 2016

Review of 2015

Gambling

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Cheltenham Trials Day

Saturday 23 January - Peter Marsh Chase

Saturday 16 January - Warwick Chase﻿

Saturday 9 Jan 2016

Review of 2015

Gambling

Archives

Categories

Saturday 16 January - Warwick Chase