Blog Archives - A Portfolio Life

A Portfolio Life

Football In Play

30/1/2013

Firstly I've laid Fulham. (Fulham 1 West Ham 0- half time).
As a fan, I can't see a downside for me. Worth £50 to get 3 valuable points.

Arsenal 0 Liverpool 1
This Premiership season is as mediocre as I can remember. Both Manchester clubs are poor and most other clubs seem to be under-performing. Everton excepted. Arsenal/Liverpool used to be a big game. Now, well I nearly watched the Hairy Bikers with the wife.

Anyway, Arsenal have been awful. Wouldn't be surprised if they stayed that way, and Liverpool are set to pick them off on the break. But the prices surely over-estimate that. I'll row against the tide.

Fulham- lay £100 at 1.55
Liverpool - spend £100 so that draw = + £100, Arsenal = +£155

Football In Play

27/1/2013

(I've actually had a couple of decent results not posted up here, Man City and Leeds, which is typical blogging. That said I gave all that back on Murray!)

Oldham 2 Liverpool 1 at half-time.

Not much to catch the eye but it's been a physical old game. I three a few quid on a sending off early on, and have topped up at half-time. Just need a few more frayed nerves and dodgy elbows.

Call it £40 at 5/2.

Saturday Racing

26/1/2013

What I found last year was that part-time form study was a waste of time. I wasn't in deep enough to have an edge.

So this year I'm eschewing form study. Instead, I'm trying to unlock a method of making a small profit with minimum input, with the off-chance of occasional big wins. It's unlikely granted, and so all posts come with a wealth warning.

Today I'm playing Cheltenham.

3:35 Knockara Beau £15ew at 50/1
(Such a frustrating horse, but gallops all day and a lot of these could throw in the towel - admittedly including him!
I'd have waited on bet to see how the doubles were doing but only decided to put Knockara in the doubles once I'd already placed this bet.)

None of the following seem worth a bet in their own right.
12:10 Last Shadow 15/2
(Should be closer in market to Rolling Star, though drifted alarmingly on betfair since I placed bet.)
1:15 Katenko 9/2
(Eyecatcher last time, not value, but surprised it's not shorter)
2:25 Weird Al 15/2
(Been in my stable for years - you know, the horse you can't stop backing in case he finally wins)
3:00 At Fishers Cross
(If I'm honest I was looking at the symmetry with Last Shadow)
3:35 Knockara Beau (place) 10/1
(See above. Don't really see him winning, but surely value as a place bet)

10 x £7 doubles
£8 treble Katenko, Weird Al, Knockara Beau (place)
£2 five fold

All Play In-Play

24/1/2013

I was queueing for the cash dispenser in town this morning. Two elderly couples - I'd say 70ish - stopped and chatted with each other on the corner. I couldn't hear what the men were talking about but the women were having a good old natter.

"Did you watch the game?"
"Oh, yes."
"Did you do anything?"
"I had a little on Swansea at half-time. Chelsea, no penetration in the final third, and I thought Swansea might pick them off on the break."

Truly. I wonder if she has a blog...

Football In Play

23/1/2013

Half Time - Swansea 0 Chelsea 0

Chelsea on top. Evens to win in 90 looks fair.
Main worry is Swansea scoring on break if Chelsea are chasing close to time at 1-0.
Will look to green out if that's looking likely.

Chelsea £100 at Evens.

Football In Play

20/1/2013

Half time - Spurs 0 Man Utd 1.

Snowbound rubbish. Spurs need to come out and give it a go. If 1-1 they'll both go for a winner.
Man Utd could shut up shop at 0-2.
Game fading to nothing is the danger.
Backing goals is long-term suicide as a football betting approach. Hmm...

£85 at least 2 more goals at 2.1
£15 0-2 at 5.9ish.

Football In-Play

20/1/2013

Chelsea 2 Arsenal 0 at half-time.

Boys versus girls so far. Looks a very poor Arsenal side.

Still, can hardly play worse second half. Sneak a goal and Chelsea could get mighty nervous.
Open enough game to risk odds-on more goals.

£80 on at least two more goals at 1.9ish
Lay Chelsea £130 at 1.12ish to risk £16
£4 Arsenal win at 30ish.

Football In-Play

19/1/2013

Swansea 0 Stoke 0 at half-time.

Swansea apparently with all the play. Stoke playing like Stoke - only 7 away goals all season.
£80 Swansea at 2.4 and a partial saver £20 0-0 full-time at 5/2.

Slippery Toad

18/1/2013

I'm mighty humbled by a post on his website from an old mucker from my golden gambling days:

I had originally planned to pen something about the forthcoming All Weather season but then the realisation hit me like a train. I don’t have the motivation to write anything new.

Way back when I harboured dreams of making it big, I imaged that to reach the stage I’m at now, the end result would be punting full time. What I didn’t realise was that being a “professional” is not synonymous to being a “full time” bettor which is the bit most people focus on. No, this is only one aspect of being a pro, for me it relates mostly to your attitude and approach to betting.

Having considered going “pro” it became clear that I was in the comforting (and less stressful) situation of having the best of both worlds in retaining my current position in a job that I really enjoy and in parallel do very well out of the GG’s. “Doing well” in the limited time I have available for betting does not equate to millions in the bank but provides a smallish second income for the finer things in life.

Also back then I was on a journey and I learnt a lot from writing about aspects of punting that I had uncovered, discovered or achieved. I also enjoyed receiving numerous comments from readers of the blog which have expanded my own thinking on the subject matter. Along the way I have had the privilege to get in contact and meet some outstanding punters who took time to explain the ropes and demonstrate to me what it really means to be “professional” (Gary Twynam I thank you).

Today I punt using methods most punters would consider sophisticated via approaches that in 2004 I thought only existed in books. I have developed automated ratings I trust, they aid in the process of determining race contenders and as a consequence they open up all manner of punting possibilities, yet I want to do more.

I feel honoured and humbled to be name-checked like that, and just delighted that Toad has reached his version of the promised land. See, blogging isn't just howling in the wind. It isn't just solipsism and onanism. It's a community of sorts. A strange one granted. But, right now, a fulfilling one. Go Toad.

www.slipperytoad.co.uk

Football In-Play

16/1/2013

So, let's kick off. Sadly, tonight's game Man Utd v West Ham at half-time offers us nothing. I'd like to have gone for another couple of goals at least, with a saver on 2-0. However, my general rules are:

a) to think what "group think" is doing to the prices at half time, and see if there's value in the opposite.
b) to not do a single bet at odds-on (although a portfolio of bets can be).

When I can't find an angle for my £100, I look for a "hey who knows" tenner. Which tonight goes on West Ham at 30/1ish.

My usual plan is to go green if things go in favour, but the tenner bets are more hit and hope, so we only go green if West Ham actually take the lead.

Rules for 2013 (amended)

16/1/2013

We're a long way from the heady days of professional gambling. The times when I spent 60 hours a week or more eating, sleeping and breathing studying form, tissue compiling, betting, race-watching and reviewing are long since gone. This is a break. A pause. A recalibration. This is fun stuff. Saturday gambler stuff. The challenge is can I find a way to make a small income with limited input.

Last year I lost money on the limited gambling I did on the horses. I did however make money betting on football. Mainly in-play. This year my approach is going to be as follows. I'm going to allow myself a set amount to play with on the horses on Saturdays and other big days. This will vary between 6pts per race and 12pts per race, depending on time, number of races, conditions, how I'm feeling etc.

12pts = 1% of my betting bank. I'm also going to allow myself 12pts per bet on football in-play, mainly at half-time.

I'll keep a count of profit or loss on the sidebar. This will be based on ALL my actual bets, as opposed to the exact blog entries. So it will include the effects of any greening out, last minute bets, midweek betting etc. I can't be bothered to keep two running tallies. That said, it should still provide a fair reflection of how the blog advice is going.

Let's see how it goes. At the same time I'll be thinking about updating and self-publishing my book on gambling, and generally working out a way to get back into the game.