A Portfolio Life - Gambling

A Portfolio Life

Update May 2018

23/5/2018

A quick update on progress with my new fund. Pootling along, though the last two weeks have been trying. Have paid some small dividends and am in profit. A terrible hourly rate though…

Missed a couple of big pay-outs – the final leg of the accumulator both times looking like winning for at least a few strides, before remembering my wager…

I’ve been recording stats on my records at every course, and in addition my bets on trainers and jockeys (doubles and upwards). Here’s a brief summary of those – I’ll be interested to see how this list compares to one at the end of a year’s betting with my new approach. “Best” means most profitable and “Worst” means lost me most money. Some of my favourite people head the Worst lists!

Best Jumps Courses
Aintree
Cheltenham
Musselburgh
Uttoxeter
Hereford

Worst Jumps Courses
Ludlow
Huntingdon
Sedgefield
Sandown

Best Jumps Trainers
Gordon Elliott
Tom Lacey
Venetia Williams
Donald McCain
Colin Tizzard

Worst Jumps Trainers
Gary Moore
Ben Pauling
Nicky Richards

Best Jumps Jockeys
Harry Cobden
Dickie Johnson

Worst Jumps Jockeys
Brian Hughes

Best Flat Course (early days)
Epsom

Worst Flat Course
Yarmouth

Best AW course
Wolves

Worst AW Course
Kempton

Best Flat Trainers
Jamie Osborne
Pip Hide

Worst Flat Trainers
James Fanshawe
Andrew Balding

Best Flat Jockeys
James Doyle
Silvestre De Sousa

Worst Flat Jockeys
Ryan Moore
Richard Kingscote

Maxime Tissier, Paul Pogba and Patrick Reed

7/4/2018

I had a bad day on the horses. Sundry awfulness, on my part mostly. But not entirely. My bet of the day at Fakenham, the jockey rode out my 10/1 horse for an easy success, whipping him home with verve and gusto.Only problem was they had another lap to go....It was that kinda day, ending up with my escape to glory being beaten in a photo-finish despite trading odds-on to win the photo.

I turned over for the football, somewhat drained. I said to myself on the 40 minute mark, "if City don't finish this now they're gonna regret it. If they don't score a third before half-time I'll lay them at 1:05 and back United at around 66/1." Instead I fell asleep and woke up as Pogba scored.

I rather feel these are runes that my 50/1 Master's bet, Patrick Reed, shouldn't ever, ever be reading..

Cheltenham Gold Cup

16/3/2018

No matter how bad your Cheltenham’s been so far, spare a thought for Aidan Coleman. 96 winners so far this year, one of the most respected senior jockeys plying their trade over here.

He’s had his usual festival - over the last few years building up an unenviable total of one win from 114 rides. Yesterday he nudged and nurdled Wholestone into a nice third in the Stayers. Tuesday, he rode a stinker on Saint Calvados in the Arkle. His other rides fell somewhere in between.

And today he’s been dropped to the subs’ bench. Whilst 16 jockeys – including not one but two amateurs – try to fulfil their dreams of Gold Cup glory, the old and grizzled veteran will be doing eleventy hundred laps of Fakenham, which might as well be on the other side of the world.

Now I could come over all racing expert and tell you that Native River and Our Duke dutched at 2/1 or longer seems a fair bet in a muddy Gold Cup. Or I could repeat yesterday’s wisdom about backing every Gordon Elliott runner blind and in as many doubles as you can find time to perm. Instead, I’m going to show solidarity with good old Aidan, and back him to spend the day getting to the 100 winner mark for the season, before driving home in tears.

Cheltenham - Thursday

15/3/2018

Halfway through yesterday I had something of an epiphany. ("I wouldn't worry about it none, them old dreams are only in your head.").

I swept away the form books, tore up my carefully compiled tissues, forsaked sniffing around for cheeky each way value, and generally ditched my English bias. For money has spoken and, as has been the case for years now, but even more so than ever, the Irish population of horses, concentrated in very few hands, is just better than our own. I've been guilty of beating on, bets against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past, where Nicholls held sway and medium-sized stables could plot one up for the Pertemps.

Thus unburdened, I nailed an 8/1 winner in Tiger Roll (admittedly an old favourite), who I'm fairly sure I've only backed three times - The Triump, the 4miler and yesterday - then followed that with a 45/1 winner in the next, and finished off with a wee Willie Mullins forecast in the bumper (should have done the trifecta!).

So, today I shall be keeping a few old English faves onside but otherwise I've turned coats, jumped ships, switched sides, to where the grass is always greener and the horses run true. Otherwise known as Gordon Elliott's stable.

Cheltenham - Wednesday

14/3/2018

I bet with my head yesterday. And look where that got me. Three duels up the hill and me a loser in all of them. Just as well I forgot to post on here.

So, today, I'm betting with my heart. And that means Bryony Frost and Black Corton. Oh, I don't care about the stats, or the class or the blah blah blah. I want to see the brave wee fella have his day. Or as Bryony (possibly the most natural interviewee racing's ever had) puts it, "I'll give him a click of the tongue two out and he'll prick his ears and say here we go".

Really hope so...

Saturday 17 Feb

17/2/2018

Difficult week so far. Thursday I was on the wrong end of three photo finishes – in two of which my horse traded odds-on, one of them at 1/10. Saturday, I even managed to do my conkers at Sandown – my favourite track and previously my most profitable.

So, I tip-toe into Saturday! I’ll have a good day if one or more of Phil Middleton, Harry Cobden and Barry Geraghty and Emma Lavelle do. Bryony and James wouldn’t harm and how about Speredek for a very unlikely upset, even more so with the Frodon exacta!

I feared the worst when Barry Geraghty was done in a photo in the first race at Ascot - here we go again, I thought - and with Rosy World also getting gubbed in a photo at the end of the card, I wasn't completely wrong. The day seemed to be sliding into ignominy but Bryony, Emma, Harry (eventually) and especially James's 10/1 winner, saved the day somewhat. Really could have done with a double, though...

Saturday 10 Feb

10/2/2018

One month back gambling full-time and the superstitions have started. Need to keep on top of them – it became crippling last time. I’ve already become obsessed about crossed knives – or rather, making sure there aren’t any. And last week the second I pressed send on the post that said we’d have a good day at Huntingdon, I just knew the gambling gods had heard and would punish me for my hubris. They did.

Friends are staying this weekend – so let’s keep it simple as pie – Knocknanuss in the Newbury handicap – 12/1. Gary Moore – enough said.

Arrived back from Shrewsbury just in time to watch Gary Moore's Casse Tete win, somewhat improbably, at Warwick. Nice, and now I had a fairly serious handful of money running onto Knocknanuss. We settled down. Unlike Knocknanuss, who had plainly got upset or over-excited or something and was rocking and roiling his race away long before the start. Ho hum. Small profit of the day, which I promptly gave back yesterday.

Saturday 3rd Feb

3/2/2018

Okay – I realise my job is to do the heavy lifting, but today's a tricky one.

Nicholls has had his month off and is going mob-handed to a meeting at Sandown where he does well historically, plus he’s sending a train-load of horses up to Musselburgh for the two-day meeting – it’ll be like that scene in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid where the posse jump out of the box car. “Who are those guys?”

He comes up against the usual Henderson squadron at Sandown – as per last year and the year before. Which makes it tricky. Plus, we have to consider other course specialists, Sir Gary Sandown Moore, Kerry Lee and good old Phil Middleton who is going for a life-changing treble tomorrow (keep that onside).

Play it as you will, but I think I’ve found a way in. Our Saturday heroes – James and Bryony. James’s rides are Top Gamble and Kris Spin for Kerry Lee, Holly Bush Henry for Middleton, and Colonial Dreams for his guvnor Henderson. Doubles and a facespitter. Kris Spin is 25/1 in the big handicap. So is Gary Moore’s Ubak. And so is Fergal O’Briens’ Okotoks, who is my idea of a decent each way thwack. Combination exactas and whatever else you fancy.

Musselburgh – Bryony rides three of Nicholls’. Did you see her ride on Frodon last week? That was something like perfection. Enough said – except to say Donald McCain single-handedly paid for my January dividend. Best placer of a racehorse since W A “little fish are sweet” Stephenson.

Dan Skelton has a similar talent, has dodged the big guns and goes mob-handed to Wetherby. No-brainer, plus Graham McPherson targets this meeting. Not forgetting you can currently back Harry Whittington and Tom Lacey blind and still show a profit. As will we, at Wetherby today.

Of course, you might want to watch the Scotland/Wales 6 nations game instead. I have no clue myself but Tony Calvin passes on the notion that the French referee is a nutter who likes sending people off. Which you can back at around 8/1 if you shop around. Be an interesting way to watch a game of rugby if nothing else…

Be lucky.

Well, that was a day. 22 races and I had a bet in 21 of them. Yep, that was probably the problem, though it is the new approach.

Let’s see. Kerry Lee tick, Bryony tick. McCain tick, Skelton tick, tick, Henderson tick, tick, tick, Nicholls tick, tick, tick, tick. James – well, nearly. And Phil Middleton – well, he deserved better. Still, I should be bathing in asses’ milk, no?

Yeah, none of them in the right order, or combination, or at the right price. Whatever way you cut it.

Had I just backed them all in singles I might well be showing a profit. But that’s not the new game. Still, not much damage – McPherson drops off the “winners come in clusters” roster – but otherwise business as usual. Saturday is a losing day so far under the new regime. If I was the soulless automaton type of gambler I’d probably give it a swerve. But, when them ducks line up in a row, Saturday remains the day that offers the juiciest fruit. In the meantime…

Cheltenham/Doncaster 27 January

27/1/2018

I’ve had a good week. I started off joining Olly Murphy on his attempt to go through the card at Fakenham, and this month’s go-to men, McCain and Hughes conjured up a nice day at Kelso. I really need to tip-toe through Cheltenham today and I’ll be able to pay myself a modest end of month dividend.

So, not much to recommend. I’ll keep Bryony, James Bowen and Harry Cobden onside – hey it’s Saturday – but that might be it for Cheltenham.

I’m more interested in Davy Russell’s trip over to Doncaster. Basically, if he has a good day, so will I.

Blimey – not a good day for Davy. So, could have been really bad news for me.

However, I managed to keep Rose Dobbin onside – she very nearly landed a double at Doncaster for me yesterday and banged in another one today. Also, Duke of Navan at 8/1.

I was going to mention Emma Lavelle in my write-up above but was too embarrassed to, thinking little of the chances of her horses on form. That’s the thing about handicapping trainers – sometimes you find yourself backing horses you never would do if you could hold the formbook the right way up. So, a nice win from Enniscoffey Oscar there.

Plus, Briony did us proud again, and James followed her home for the exacta. You’d think I’d had a good day after all that boasting. Actually, I ended up exactly where I started. Which I’m happy with.

Saturday Gambler - Peter Marsh

20/1/2018

Had a good day yesterday – McCain and Hughes have been my go-to men so far this year, and yesterday they didn’t disappoint.

Today I’ll have a good day if The New One finally loses his own race, if Gary Moore has a sneaky new juvenile star, if Fry does well at Ascot or Tizzard at Haydock. If I’m chasing my tail come 3:55 I’ll probably bet like a mug loon on the horse Brian Hughes has gone all the way to Taunton to ride! Be lucky...

That Saturday didn’t start well. I had messaged all my gambling friends to tell them that Gary Moore allegedly reckoned Et Moi Alors was his best juvenile hurdler. I said make of it what you will, knowing that - as most of us treat Gary Moore as some sort of fecund racing god – they’d all be piling in on an unraced horse at a ridiculous 11/4. To my credit, even as I was feeling overly pleased with myself, I did lay my stake back at 1.2 as he sauntered into the lead with one to jump. Not my worst move. Down he went. Ping went messenger. “FFS” it said. Indeed. I’ll admit I was now worried as to the prospect for the rest of the day. Them gambling gods. Them’s bad juju…

But then Harry Fry got the doubles going at Ascot – Air Force One would have really kicked them onwards – but at least I had the James Bowen winner covered and the forecast. Correction, the exacta, which paid exactly half as much as the forecast. I default to the exacta because I usually only do them with double figure horses – I forgot the effect of the fave on exacta pay-outs. Idiot.

Still, The Dutchman at 12/1 – against an SP of 13/2 – rewarded me for backing Tizzard when I felt his stable was blowing cold, plus, again, the exacta. I nearly landed a McCain treble, but at least had Ubaltique in a single and, of course, ended the day with Brian Hughes trotting up at Taunton. We won’t mention the beast that is The New One, suffice to say the vanquished Harry Skelton leaning over to give him a congratulatory pat was exactly how I felt. Nicely done.

Mustn’t grumble. Just need to kick on to pay a modest dividend at the end of the month. Then again, a week’s a long time gambling…

Saturday Gambler - Lanzarote

13/1/2018

I was trying too hard early on in the week, but found my mojo yesterday, keeping it simple and was rewarded with some Henderson doubles. I’m keeping him onside again today at Kempton, but am more taken that Nico De Boinville has gone to Warwick.

I’ll have a good day if the Skeltons do well at Warwick or Dickie Johnson thrives at Wetherby.

In the Lanzarote I could back loads and might yet, but feel obliged to keep the two Nick Williams’ runners on-side. Lizzie’s on the first-string at 25/1. Interviewed yesterday, she said how she always chooses the wrong horse when daddy runs two, so I had a look, saw that Harry Cobden has been booked to ride the other one, and dashed to get the 50/1 before all the thieves jumped aboard. Good to see I can still move markets, given he’s now a general 66/1…

Reflections

A couple of months ago I said to a friend – Saturdays, for the rest of the season we need to keep James Bowen and Bryony Frost onside in the big handicaps. Simple. Or simpleton, given I backed neither yesterday. My friend did, obviously.

I’ve been backing Tom Lacey runners pretty much blind this season. On a busy Saturday, his one runner was lost to me in the rush to apply my other approaches. Until I heard his name called out as Vado Forte won the first at Warwick at 14/1. Bugger-bad start to the day.

In trying to keep the Henderson runners onside at Kempton, I got greedy and included Josses Hill in the accumulators, even though I gave him little to no chance, and had previously decided to focus on the runners in the other three races. That’s a 90/1 treble missed. I always struggle when a trainer has multiple entries in several races.

In better news, I had Dickie Johnson covered in doubles. Had he managed a fifth winner, that would have made all the difference but, even with the three mistakes above, it was an okay day and an okay week in the end. Not profitable, mind…

Gambling 2018

6/1/2018

I appear to be a full-time gambler again. Last year I was trying (at the very least half-heartedly) to land a proper full-time training job, or interim equivalent. To no avail. One excruciating interview aside. At the same time I tried (more whole-heartedly) to get my novel, and (to a lesser extent) my management book published. To no avail. One very encouraging rejection letter aside.

Whilst suffering this litany of failure I was playing small-time on the horses, twiddling about with a new methodology, and I did well enough for me to think I may be able to get back in the game.

And so, here I am. I have scraped together a bank, a modest one, but large enough I hope it will see me through to retirement and then beyond. My staking is going to be ludicrously conservative. I’ll be playing a maximum of 1% of the bank per meeting. My focus is going to be mainly on trainers, and especially focused on winners coming in clusters. My objective is for a very modest income, the equivalent of, say, me going and getting a minimum wage job at B&Q, not that they’d employ me in a million years. Assuming they have any sense.

I’ll do Saturday updates on here. Until I get bored anyway. Who knows, there may even be another book in it, unpublishable obviously.

To kick us off today I have done Wild West Wind at 10s and Ask the Weatherman at 15/1 to win the Welsh National and will have a good day if any of Gary Moore, Harry Cobden or James Bowen do.

That could have worked out worse. And, indeed better. A late ew play on Raz de Maree helped a lot, but thereafter James Bowen had three decent chances to really kick the fun forward with the running-on doubles. All floundered in the mud. One winner for Harry Cobden. One winner ain't what this game is about. And Gary Moore doesn't seem to have had a cluster of winners at Sandown for ages but who's going to stop me betting on that. It usually pays for my holidays.

My new methodology relies on me breaking even on daily plays (hopefully ahead, but I can live with level). The profit/bunce is in the clusterbombs. The staking is conservative enough to survive losing runs, but clever enough to take maximum advantage of the lucky days. That's the idea anyway.

So, one week in, how did we do? £50 up. Mustn't grumble. It's profit. Not mimimum wage, but still. Onwards...

£1000 Challenge - update

22/11/2017

I've still been following this slavishly - pretty much full-time actually - throwing tenners around with gay abandon.

Where has it gotten me? Well, to Croatia and Cadiz for starters, so mustn't grumble.

Noel Fehily at Plumpton, Anthony Honeyball at Fontwell, Charlie Appleby at Newmarket, trebles here and there, doubles more often. Winners come in clusters. Seems to me a very good way of betting if you have no real bank, or edge, to grind out the ten per cent.

I'm not sure exactly what I've won, I've not been keeping strict records as I used to. Say 6k. From a 1k starting-bank, that's not too shabby. It is actually abona fide edge, and one the bookies really aren't worried about.

Reckon I'll keep plugging away...

Ryanair, O'Leary and Rich Ricci

19/9/2017

Here’s my Michael O’Leary story.

I get that a lot of what O’Leary has done over the years has been a shtick with a serious purpose. He was trying to make the point that, for the prices, you had to accept that the hitherto glamorous world of flight inevitably had to become the dreary and grubby world of buses.

What he forgot was the contempt. The contempt that oozes from every pore of his body. For passengers, for staff, for jockeys and, for all I know, for loved ones. I add jockeys, because he has spent his money and leisure on building up a massive National Hunt racing operation, ostensibly run by his brother. My best guess is that every time he’s contemptuous towards someone or something, the endorphins kick in and he celebrates by buying another racehorse. (Perhaps, instead, he should just pay his staff more. Just a thought - FT).

Whatever, he uses horse racing as another way to ‘keep score’ and does so against a group of like-minded grotesques who have splurged their ‘hard-earned’ money on castrated horses for the craic. For the cheers at Cheltenham.

Personally, I reserve my own hatred for Rich Ricci, named by Charles Dickens, dressed for a mid-March festival as only someone across the Atlantic could imagine an English gentleman would dress in 2017. Rich Ricci was a bankster, who somehow dodged jail and who now flashes his Osmond teeth at fawning Racing UK presenters, who should know better, as he talks ludicrously of his role in readying his horses for their Festival targets. ‘You pay for them, you jumped-up, cheating fuckwit, you don’t train them’, I shout at the telly, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

I happen to know someone who was a senior PA, during the Barclays’ glory years of Libor-fixing and money-laundering and sundry dodgy dealings, when the mantra was “you think we’re cowboys, you should see what they’re doing at Deutsche Bank.” She says, quite brilliantly, that “Ricci always thought he was Bob Diamond’s consigliere, when really he was his just his bell-boy.”

Anyway, remarkably, Michael O’Leary is more unpopular.

So, here’s my story. 2013. Cheltenham – The Ryanair Chase, one of the biggest races at the Festival and one of my favourites. I’ve backed O’Leary’s horse, First Lieutenant at 7/2 to win O’Leary’s own race. He goes off the 2/1 favourite and chases the grand old wonder that is Cue Card around the course. The race is getting serious when, three out, he clouts one, and the game is over. Cue Card wins and First Lieutenant battles on for second. I’m standing on the lower steppings of the grandstand, clapping Cue Card, a horse I love and whom I backed to win the bumper here years earlier at a ridiculous 80/1 and should obviously have backed every single run thereafter.

My disappointment was tangible. Standing next to me throughout was an old school, posh woman, about my age, properly togged-up in point-to-point rural finery, plus, in my memory at least, some pearls. I’d never met her before. We’d not spoken, nor even had eye contact. We had just shared the Ryanair Chase together. She sensed my pain. She turned to me and she said, purest cut-glass, “Oh well, never mind, at least that cunt O’Leary didn’t win…”

£1000 Challenge - Update

14/8/2017

Not posted on here for a month, (the gambling pages weren't getting any hits anyway, so didn't see the point of talking to myself - even if that has been my default internet setting these last twenty years). But I have been carrying on with the challenge.

Had built up a nice bank, and paid for some treats. Then Goodwood arrived. Didn't back a winner all week. Even managed to miss a 100/1 Gary Moore shot. Hurt. Re-grouped.

Then one day last week I went through the card at Haydock - never done that before - admittedly betting more than one horse in each race. Threw in a nice little treble on Chris Wall's runners at Yarmouth for good measure and four more winners in the evening at Sandown. Backed 18 winners in one day, in fact. Mustn't grumble. Didn't make me rich, but did scramble back most of Goodwood's losses.

Haven't had a football bet yet. The racing has been book-ended by two golf majors. I traded both. Ended up with an all-green book in the Open, except for eventual winner Spieth, and an all-green book in the PGA, except for eventual winner Thomas. Bugger.

£1000 Challenge - Newmarket - day 2

14/7/2017

Poor day yesterday. That said, a lucky exacta at Newmarket and one of the Baker horses winning at 10/1 saved the day.

I'll play Newmarket - usual suspects - today, but it's Haggas at York where the action is, combined every which way. Betfair sportsbook are top-priced all 7 of his runners, so I've no idea what they know - more than me, that's for sure.

£1000 Challenge - Newmarket July - day 1

13/7/2017

Rubbish day yesterday - and dabbled far too much.

The July meeting is my least favourite of the summer festivals. Looks impossible today. I'll keep Ryan Moore and Gosden onside.

At Epsom this evening, De Sousa doubles and I'll play the Baker pair also.

£1000 Challenge - Catterick and Yarmouth

12/7/2017

An Aidan Coleman treble yesterday became a nice winning double given the non-runner. Pushed my bank to 3k.

Had meant to do Ian Williams today but non-runners scupper that.

Going instead for Luke Morris with a nice book of rides at Catterick, plus usual suspects Fahey at Catterick and Johnston at Yarmouth.

£1000 Challenge - Worcester Monday

10/7/2017

I've never been to Worcester races. Looks nice. Must rectify.

Noel Fehily for me today. Call it a £5 treble on here.

£1000 Challenge - Women's tennis

9/7/2017

Came out ahead yesterday, but not because of the racing. The latter was okay, at least when I added Stoute and Gosden into the portfolio, with Haggas helping as usual, but no-one got on a proper roll, which this approach really requires.

No, I came out ahead because of the women's tennis at Wimbledon, and a long-standing system. What you do is wait for the outsider to get comfortably ahead of a high-seeded player, and then, once they have to serve it out, lay them at something under 1.2, sit back and watch them collapse under the pressure. Two such games followed this script on TV yesterday - Rodgers failing to put away Kerber, followed by Kontaveit throwing away her chance against Wozniacki. I used to do this quite aggressively but, even with a small bank, it's usually quite easy to trade into a nice position.

Will play Market Rasen today but no obvious angles...